Comments for FiftyThousandFootView

Comment on Byron Wien’s crystal ball by Pat

Pat — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:58:49 +0000

Good question. I suspect since these are surprises he doesn’t expect a surprise relative to oil. His former firm, Morgan Stanley predicts an average oil price of $85 per bbl, which is $2 from where we are today. I’ve heard him say that he considers a surprise something that the consensus would say has 1 in 3 or lesser odds and that he believes have even odds of occurring. Many forecasters are not expecting wild things out of oil and I sense that there is general comfort with the concept of $70-$90 oil, or even $60-$100 oil. Therein lie the makings of a black swan…the trip from $35 to $150 and back to $35 like we saw in the past two years is not expected but who knows? Lot of wild cards out there. Iran for one. Hey when life gives you Yemen you give Yemen aid. (I’ve been dying to use that one…seemed appropriate…sorry)

Comment on Holy Mackerel! by Mike

Mike — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:39:32 +0000

Any recommendations for how to smoke this tuna?

Comment on Byron Wien’s crystal ball by DFB

DFB — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:34:49 +0000

What should one make of his failure to address the price of crude oil in 2010, given his predictions on the topic in 2007, 2008 and 2009?

Comment on Equal time by Mike

Mike — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:17:07 +0000

Really interesting chart. But how in the Sam Hill are 88% bullish based on the rest of the data?

As for the fractal, I think the artist has already put much in her pipe and smoked it.

Comment on Byron Wien’s crystal ball by Equal time – FiftyThousandFootView

Equal time – FiftyThousandFootView — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 17:09:45 +0000

[...] between this post, and our prior post we’ve presented two of the infinite views on 2010 that are out there. We like both of these [...]

Comment on The New York Times on the day Michael Jackson died by Mike

Mike — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:08:27 +0000

You’re hipper than I am. I have never been to the TMZ or PerezHilton sites, but I’m sure they are go to sites for the generation behind me. My go to is CNN. I have noticed that for all of its blemishes CNN is very fast about getting breaking news online.

As for FMFV, I admit to being surprised that it didn’t break the low-cal pizza story, or for that matter the glow in the dark wallpaper story, but I’m a fan nevertheless.

Comment on The New York Times on the day Michael Jackson died by Pat

Pat — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:23:34 +0000

I’ll bet TMZ and PerezHilton were at the top, along with CNN. NYT is not a go-to site I’d go to for this either. It would be for a NY-based civic type story, ala Spitzer, Hudson river crash etc. For a biz story it’d be WSJ or Bloomberg…non-gossip sports story, ESPN. Any dish about celebs TMZ and Perez. Anything breaking of a complex, intellectual or otherwise appealing to the erudite, FTFV of course.;)

Comment on The New York Times on the day Michael Jackson died by Mike

Mike — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:30:32 +0000

I was at Summerfest in Milwaukee on that day. The first I heard about the situation was a breaking news email from the Wall Street Journal, which I remember thinking was kind of bizarre. WSJ? But I can imagine that once the tidbit about him being taken to the hospital was released, everyone started to check their favorite news website for the latest information. Everyone except me. I grabbed another beer from the Miller Oasis instead.

What would really be interesting to see is a comparison of the websites that were accessed as the news first broke. This would show which sites are the first “go to” sites. Frankly, I don’t think of the NYT as a go site at all.

Comment on The world is alive with the sound of money by Mike

Mike — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:02:08 +0000

I heard John Bolton last night and he thinks the most likely outcome is a nuclear Iran. In other words, no attack by Israel (though he didn’t phrase it that way). I would expect that he knows as much as anyone does these days. Israel probably would like to strike Iran, but does not feel that America would be supportive enough in the aftermath. Then again, Israel is very independent minded. My bet is that if it doesn’t happen by the end of January it’s not going to happen.

Comment on The world is alive with the sound of money by Pat

Pat — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:24:26 +0000

Agreed. Stocks down, dollar up, oil immediately above $100 and gold spiking to $1.250-1,300. All things we’ll see soon enough, with or without such a scenario but immediately with one. Lets hope this doesn’t come to pass.