Book jacket cover of Ford Madox Ford’s The Last Post(1)
OK, one could find themselves in the middle of June still sifting through the prognostications for the coming year of all of the prognosticators who have a voice in today’s cacophonous market chatter. This, dear readers, is the last post on such matters as this new year has kicked off with such a flurry of activity and news as to render such views an ever more perishable luxury. Nonetheless it is always good to reestablish bearings at the start of the year and calibrate our way-finding gear and these views from market analysts and pundits serve to assist in that process.
So, the first of the last two things I’ll offer up is a somewhat tongue-in-cheek quick review of the standout predictions for 2010 courtesy of Business Insider.Just click through using the arrows at the upper right of the slide show starting at 1/28.
Finally, for those looking for a compendium of predictions to refer to over time or to dig deeper on any of your favorite firms or analysts we refer you to this excellent link summary to a large collection of 2010 forecasts as compiled by the industrious folks at The Pragmatic Capitalist in their The Ultimate Guide to 2010 Investment Predictions and Outlooks.
The glories of technology
It is amazing that all of that information is available to the masses free of charge and at the click of a button. When I started in the investment banking business in the late 1980s such information would have only been available to the largest institutional investors, only in cumbersome paper form, and at a dear price in commissions or direct fees. The democratization and “freeing” of such data is real progress but may render such information of less value as anything relevant and material gets imputed into prices so much faster these days. Perhaps that is another reason for all of the focus on predicting black swans, which by their definition may be unpredictable.
Such is the value of technology. Speaking of which, I have never been an early adopter of technology devices but I uncharacteristically jumped on the new Google phone early…and am I happy. Called the Google Nexus One, it is, quite simply, a great device. To be clear, I’m shifting from a Blackberry Curve 8900 to the Google phone not having experienced the joy that appears to be the iphone, so I’m new to things like a good browser, real apps, healthy screen size etc. I must admit, I miss my tiny keyboard but know I will master the touchscreen keyboard as I’ve gotten better at it in the last 24 hours.
I was watching CNBC’s coverage of the launch on Tuesday in my office when I got the bug and hopped online to order it from Google. The online Google storefront was the most elegant I’ve seen and the process was quick and flawless. They offered free engraving but said that would add 72 hours to when they could ship. They also offered free FedEx shipping, I suppose as an inducement to the early buying nuts like me who were willing to shell out $500 for the unproven device. I took both and hit the send button on my order at about 3:00pm on Tuesday, expecting to take possession in a week or so. The device showed up at my office at 10:00am the next morning, yesterday. Ever since I’ve been smitten with this device. Anyway, you’ll hear both positive and negative about it in the coming days and months. So far, consider me a big fan…until otherwise notified.
(1) The Last Post is a novel by Ford Madox Ford which is part of his tetralogy (four related novels) called Parade’s End and published between 1924 and 1928. It is set in England and on the Western Front in World War I, where Ford served as an officer in the Royal Welch Fusiliers, a life vividly depicted in the novels. The compilation was ranked at number 57 on the Modern Library’s 100 Best Novels list. The novel chronicles the life of Christopher Tietjens, “the last Tory,” a brilliant government statistician from a wealthy land-owning family who is serving in the British Army during World War I. Much of the novel is spent following Tietjens in French trenches as he ruminates on how to be a better soldier and untangle his strange social life. For more on Ford Madox Ford see wikipedia here.
