The Employment Situation Report was released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the numbers disappointed. With estimates ranging from a loss of 100K jobs to gains of as many as 300K there was great uncertainty around the December number, but the consensus was for a gain. The actual loss of 85,000 jobs in December was a real letdown:
- “Establishment Survey Data: Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.
Household Survey Data: In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.7 million, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent.”
The Obama administration was rumored to be preparing a round of cheerleading appearances today but we suspect the script is being rewritten to skew towards more stimulus rather than celebration.
As we’ve said before the employment numbers are the real magilla as it relates to determining the strength of the real economy and the recovery. Today’s indication is not a good one for that but we suspect that corporate earnings will benefit, at least short term, as employers continue to focus on expense reduction as evidenced by the continuing employment reductions.
