We are revisiting this chart as it has developed since we last viewed it and the development remains scary. The all-important employment numbers remain fragile, as evidenced by Friday’s unexpectedly bad numbers. This chart shows that we are in a slow bottoming process like the most recent recessionary period of 2001, not like the V-shaped employment drop and surge after World War II. Bottoming is good relative to falling but a slow bottoming with slow recovery is not good for the economy. (For a larger view of this graph please click here.
One of the more alarming stats regarding employment is the number and percentage of unemployed that have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks. That chart looks as follows (click here):
Calculated Risk brings us both of these charts and the accompanying commentary:
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“The current employment recession is the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early ’80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).
Note: The total jobs lost does not include the annual benchmark payroll revision that will be announced on February 5, 2010. The preliminary estimate is for a downward revision of 824,000 jobs – pushing the total jobs lost over 8 million.
Unemployed Over 26 Weeks
According to the BLS, there are a record 6.13 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.0% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948).”
Employment remains the bellwether and the outlook remains cloudy.
